Military recruiting rebounds after several tough years

After several very difficult years and a swath of new programs and enticements, the Army, Air Force, Marine Corps and Space Force will all meet their recruiting goals by the end of this month and the Navy will come very close, the military services say.

The results represent a slight uptick in young people joining the military, reversing a dismal trend as the services struggled to overcome severe restrictions on in-person recruiting mandated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the low unemployment rate and stiff competition from private companies able to pay more and provide similar or better benefits.

But Army leaders looking to the future worry that an expected drop in the youth population may signal more difficult times ahead. And other military officials say that while they are seeing improvements, they will still face tough challenges and must keep transforming their recruiting going forward.

Military leaders note that only about 23% of young adults are physically, mentally and morally qualified to serve without receiving some type of waiver. Moral behavior issues include drug use, gang ties or a criminal record. And of those qualified to serve, many are wary of taking on a job that puts their life or health at risk.

The Army has made the biggest comeback, after falling far short of recruiting goals for the past two years. Two years ago, the Army brought in 45,000 recruits, far less than the 60,000 it needed, and last year it again fell 15,000 short of what leaders publicly set as a “stretch goal” of 65,000 recruits.

This year, with a lower goal of 55,000, the service will meet its target, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said Wednesday, and she plans to now set a higher goal for 2025.

Wormuth said that an expected drop of about 10% in the number of college-age young people in 2026 is a significant concern. The dip comes 18 years after the financial recession in 2008, which triggered a decrease in the number of children born.

It’s a big issue, she said, because the Army and the other services recruit from that population. And other challenges will also continue.

“I think we’re going to probably continue to see pretty low unemployment. We’re still going to see 60% go to college. It’s a more competitive labor market,” Wormuth said. “So we’re going to have to kind of keep fighting hard for our new recruits.”