'Enormous' Helene could be a Cat 4 hurricane before Florida landfall

THURSDAY UPDATE:
Fast-moving Hurricane Helene was advancing Thursday across the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, threatening an “unsurvivable” storm surge in northwestern parts of the state as well as damaging winds, rains and flash floods hundreds of miles inland across much of the southeastern U.S.

Helene was upgraded Thursday morning to a Category 2 storm and is expected to be a major hurricane — meaning a Category 3 or higher — when it makes landfall on Florida’s northwestern coast Thursday evening. As of early Thursday, hurricane warnings and flash flood warnings extended far beyond the coast up into south-central Georgia. The governors of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas have all declared emergencies in their states.

The storm is still expected to make landfall in the Big Bend region, where Florida’s panhandle and peninsula meet, according to Jack Beven, senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The National Weather Service office in Tallahassee forecast storm surges of up to 20 feet and warned they could be particularly “catastrophic and unsurvivable” in Florida’s Apalachee Bay. It added that high winds and heavy rains also posed risks.

“This forecast, if realized, is a nightmare surge scenario for Apalachee Bay,” the office said. “Please, please, please take any evacuation orders seriously!”

Helene was about 320 miles southwest of Tampa on Thursday morning and moving north-northeast at 12 mph with top sustained winds of 100 mph. Forecasters said it should become a Category 3 or higher hurricane, meaning winds would top 110 mph.

While Helene will weaken as it moves inland, its “fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States,” including in the southern Appalachian Mountains, the hurricane center said. The center posted lesser tropical storm warnings as far north as North Carolina and east Tennessee, and warned that much of the region could experience prolonged power outages, toppled trees and dangerous flooding.


WEDNESDAY UPDATE:
An enormous Hurricane Helene swamped parts of Mexico on Wednesday as it churned on a path forecasters said would take it to Florida as a major storm with a surge that could swallow entire homes, a chilling warning that sent residents scrambling for higher ground, closed schools, and led to states of emergency throughout the Southeast.

Virtually the whole state of Florida is already under some form of weather warning or advisory. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said damaging winds and flooding from Helene could extend more than 250 miles beyond the heart of the storm.

Helene’s center was about 460 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said, and the hurricane was expected to intensify and grow as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico.

On Wednesday afternoon, Helene was moving north at 12 mph with top sustained winds of 85 mph and was intensifying over the warm waters of the Gulf. Forecasters said it should become a major Category 3 or higher hurricane Thursday with winds above 110 mph. Its center is projected to hit Florida’s Big Bend area, the curving stretch of Gulf coastline in the state’s north.

The hurricane ranks in the 90th percentile for its sheer size, and it could create a storm surge as high as 18 feet in places. Helene is forecast to be one of the largest storms in breadth in seven years to hit the Gulf, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

The fast-moving storm’s wind and rain could then penetrate far inland after landfall in Florida late Thursday, authorities warned.

One insurance firm, Gallagher Re, is expecting billions of dollars in damage in the U.S. Around 18,000 linemen from out of state staged in Florida, ready to help restore power. Airports in St. Petersburg, Tallahassee and Tampa were planning to close on Thursday, and 62 hospitals, nursing homes and assisted living facilities evacuated their residents Wednesday.



(Photo: Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel via AP)