90 percent chance of rain means Kentucky Derby should be a 'mudder's delight'

The Kentucky Derby is tough to win, with a huge field of stampeding horses and 150,000 screaming fans in the stands. Toss in a rainy forecast that could turn the Churchill Downs dirt strip into something resembling peanut butter and it gets trickier.

A field of 19 3-year-olds is set to run 1 1/4 miles for a $3.1 million prize and the garland of red roses on Saturday. Mucking things up is a forecast of 65 degrees with a 90% chance of rain.

Thirteen of the Derby contenders — including early 3-1 favorite Journalism — have never raced on a wet track. Clods of flying mud hitting their faces could be a turnoff.

The soggy weather isn’t just a bummer for those wanting the fairest of track conditions. The Derby is also a big party and fashion show, and rain means pulling out ponchos — no umbrellas allowed — to protect the huge hats and floral dresses.

The last Derby run on a sloppy track was in 2019, when Country House won via a disqualification that had nothing to do with the weather. The last muddy track was in 1989, when Sunday Silence won.

Trainer Bob Baffert goes for a record-setting seventh victory in his return from a three-year suspension. He’ll saddle Citizen Bull, last year’s 2-year-old champion. The colt breaks from the dreaded No. 1 post, leaving him little choice but to get to the front before the rest of the field comes over, potentially cutting him off.

No horse has won from the No. 1 post since Ferdinand in 1986.


(AP Photo Jon Cherry)