Forecasters Predict Warmer, Stormier Winter

As winter approaches, forecasters are busy trying to predict what kind of weather our area could see in the coming months.

Meteorologist Mike York at the National Weather Service office in Paducah says forecast models indicate the possibility of a warmer, wetter winter this year. 

"We'll be in a weak La Niña this winter, which typically means a fairly stormy winter with above normal precipitation in the Ohio Valley," York said. "It also usually means somewhat above normal temperatures with a storm track a little bit to our north. That does fluctuate though, we've had La Niña winters where we've had quite a bit of cold and snow. On average we would expect there to be quite a bit of precipitation. A lot of snow, ice and sleet, as well as a higher chance of severe weather."

Although not normally associated with this time of year, tornado outbreaks do happen in winter from time to time. York noted the severe weather outbreak of 1999-2000, when several tornadoes touched down in our area. He said the chances for such an event are a bit higher this season than in recent years.

The Weather Service is also making some changes this year to its warning protocol. York said the main change will be a simplification of winter weather warnings.

"The biggest change we're gonna make this winter is to abolish the freezing rain advisory and just issue a winter weather advisory. That will cover all types of advisories for winter weather. Then, as far as watches, we're going to get rid of the blizzard watch and just have a winter storm watch. But there will not be any changes to our winter storm warnings." York said.

York said the simpler warnings won't mean a loss of information. "We can always put in the text of the warning details on what kind of precipitation [to expect]. So there won't be any information lost by consolidating these warnings and advisories," He said.  "We're just going to put the information in a slightly different format."